New South Wales Population Futures
New South Wales Department of Planning, Housing and Infrastructure
Industry
Solutions Engaged
Objective
Develop a population forecasting tool to support strategic planning throughout the State across various geographical scales.
Method
Worked with the State Government and leading Australian demographer Dr. Tom Wilson to develop a python-based tool capable of modelling the impacts of economic conditions, housing developments, and infrastructure investments.
Solution
Population forecasting is a complex task, especially in rapidly growing regions with small geographic areas, requiring assumptions about birth rates, migration patterns, and economic conditions to predict future population changes. These forecasts are essential for government planning, providing valuable data to help determine the future need for schools, hospitals, roads, and other services..
The Geografia team collaborated with Dr. Tom Wilson, one of Australia’s top demographers, to develop a population forecasting and scenario modelling tool for the State of NSW, the largest (by population) State in Australia.
The forecasting tool allows for testing various economic, infrastructure, and housing investment scenarios, generating results across SA2, local government, and regional levels, as well as custom areas based on SA1s. Built in Python, the model is easily updated and incorporates machine learning to handle complex migration patterns, providing insights into how people move to, from, and within NSW.
